Former U.S. President Donald Trump has assured that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not face arrest while in the United States, despite an active International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant. This assurance comes amid tensions between Trump and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who has shown support for enforcing the ICC warrant during Netanyahu’s potential visits, particularly for the UN General Assembly in September. Trump’s assurance aligns with previous U.S. federal positions, emphasizing non-cooperation with the ICC due to the U.S. not being a signatory to the Rome Statute and existing presidential orders that offer Netanyahu immunity.
Despite the legal complexities, markets appear to interpret this development as increasing the likelihood of a meeting between Trump and Netanyahu. The market for a Trump-Netanyahu meeting by July 31, 2026, shows a significant YES probability, suggesting confidence that Trump’s assurances may facilitate such an engagement. However, the pricing for a meeting by earlier dates remains low, indicating uncertainty about immediate developments.
The potential for a meeting is also influenced by geopolitical factors, including ongoing tensions in Gaza and broader Middle Eastern diplomacy. Market activity reflects these dynamics, with participants seemingly weighing the prospects of diplomatic breakthroughs or setbacks.
