Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani just bumped Robinhood’s price target from $130 to $160, and the reasoning tells you everything about where retail finance is heading. It’s not crypto trading driving the upgrade. It’s prediction markets.
The firm forecasts that Robinhood’s prediction markets revenue will jump from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026. That’s a 286% year-over-year increase, the kind of growth rate that makes even crypto traders raise an eyebrow.
The Rothera play and why it matters
At the center of this thesis is Rothera, a CFTC-licensed prediction markets exchange that Robinhood launched as a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group. The platform went live on January 20, 2026, after Robinhood acquired a 90% stake in MIAXdx, giving it the regulatory infrastructure to offer event contracts to US customers.
Here’s the thing about prediction markets: they sit at the intersection of trading, gambling, and information discovery. Polymarket proved the concept during the 2024 US election cycle, but it couldn’t serve American users directly. Robinhood, with its massive retail user base and a proper CFTC license, is essentially walking through the door that Polymarket propped open.
