Bernstein raised its price target on Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) to $160 from $130 and kept an "Outperform" rating, telling clients that revenue from the brokerage's prediction-markets business is set to surpass its crypto trading revenue.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani projected prediction-market revenue would grow at a 64% compound annual rate through 2028 to reach roughly $1.7 billion. He estimated the second quarter of 2026 could be the first in which prediction-market revenue — put at about $150 million, up roughly 44% from the first quarter — exceeds crypto trading revenue.
The $160 target implies more than 60% upside from Friday's month-low of just under $100. It is based on a 35-times forward earnings multiple and a 2028 earnings-per-share estimate of $4.56, about 36% above Wall Street consensus, according to figures cited in the note.
Bernstein tied the upgrade to Robinhood's push into prediction markets, perpetual futures and tokenized equities, which it expects to grow from about 3% of total revenue in 2025 to roughly 18% in 2027 and about 23% in 2028.
The prediction-markets bet runs through Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange that Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group created after acquiring a majority stake in LedgerX in late 2025 and rebranding it. Rothera launched event contracts in May and, per the note, has processed more than 3.5 billion contracts, becoming the fourth-largest prediction platform by volume. It currently accounts for about 16% of Robinhood's total event-contract volume.
