Recent reports indicate that over half of Russia’s oil refining capacity is offline following a series of Ukrainian attacks, as stated by Tenet Research. The reported downtime affects around 4.3 million barrels per day (bpd), accounting for approximately 58% of Russia’s total refining capacity. This development has led to a significant reduction in refining runs, which have fallen to about 3.80 million bpd, marking the lowest level since March 2005. The attacks, primarily through drone strikes on at least 25 refineries since August 2025, have also resulted in domestic fuel shortages and price hikes in Russia.
Market participants appear to interpret these disruptions as potentially impactful on global oil supply, which could influence WTI crude oil prices. The market for WTI Crude Oil in July 2026 has seen notable activity, with the probability of hitting higher price targets adjusting in response to the situation. The likelihood of WTI reaching $90 in July currently stands at 35.9% YES, suggesting a significant recalibration from previous estimates.
The geopolitical tension, combined with the operational challenges faced by Russian refineries, has led to a reallocation of crude exports, with expectations of increased shipments from western ports.
