The former British government expert who consulted on the search for the remains of the murdered backpacker Peter Falconio says he has now identified a “most likely” potential burial location – an abandoned racetrack only 8km from the scene of the infamous outback attack at Barrow Creek.In July 2001, Falconio and his partner, Joanne Lees, both from Yorkshire, were ambushed and attacked by Bradley John Murdoch as they drove along a remote stretch of road in Australia’s Northern Territory, about 300km north of Alice Springs.Falconio was shot and killed at the roadside. Murdoch bound Lees with cable ties in what is believed to have been an attempted abduction but she managed to flee into the darkness and hide in the scrub for hours.New footage shows Peter Falconio murderer Bradley John Murdoch refusing to reveal location – videoMurdoch was convicted of Falconio’s murder in 2005 but never admitted his guilt or spoke about where he took the backpacker’s remains. He died in prison last year.This week, 25 years after the attack, the Northern Territory police released a video of an agitated Murdoch refusing to reveal the location before his death.“I know nothing,” he says.Peter Falconio and Joanne Lees. Photograph: Family handout/PAThe decades-long police search for Falconio’s remains has been underpinned by two assumptions. The first is that the search is a “needle-in-a-haystack” effort in an incredibly large area of red dirt and sun-bleached scrub, stretching south for a distance roughly equivalent to a drive from London to Leeds.The second is that because of that vastness, only Murdoch could ever lead authorities to the site.Dr Mark Harrison, the UK’s national police search adviser in the early 2000s and a world-leading consultant in “no-body” homicide cases, says this is not the case.Harrison told Guardian Australia last year that the chances of locating Falconio’s body remained “high” and that he had identified five possible burial locations using a combination of criminal profiling and physical site analysis.He returned to the outback this year with the retired FBI criminal profiler Kathy Canning-Mello and the pair visited the potential locations. Some of their site assessments were filmed for the documentary Outback Terror: The Falconio Murder.A map showing the location of Barrow CreekHarrison revealed to the Guardian that, after working with Canning-Mello, he had revised five potential sites from his earlier reports down to three. But that he believes the most likely potential burial site – the “primary” site for any comprehensive geoforensic search – is a disused racecourse.“We have a phrase in this type of work, whenever we work on a cold case we say, ‘You must clear the ground from under your feet,’” Harrison says.“What we mean by that is that the nearest most proximate location must be considered.Dense scrub near Barrow Creek. Photograph: AAP“If you had a map of the area, the racecourse is the most likely crime scene near the attack site. The geography is unique to this case. The nearest place to conceal a body is the racecourse, otherwise it’s just a stretch of road”Into the criminal mindIn the absence of a confession by Murdoch, a psychological criminal profile is arguably the most effective way of getting into the mind of the killer.The criminal profiling and other evidence that have gone into identifying possible burial sites include an assessment that Murdoch’s intent – when he shot Falconio and bound Lees – was to kidnap and rape her.Murdoch, a one-time interstate drug runner on the Stuart Highway that connects Australia’s north and south like a scar across the interior, was familiar with the terrain and is assumed to have planned to take Lees to a specific isolated location.When she escaped, Harrison says it’s likely that same intended location became the burial site.By this logic, the racecourse stands out.“What we do know is that he would absolutely know it was there, he was a long-distance driver, he would drive past that for years and one would suspect he would have driven past that when it was an active racecourse.