This week has been a “good” week if you work at the Federal Reserve. The consumer price index, out Tuesday, showed inflation slowing for households in June. The producer price index, out Wednesday, showed inflation slowing for businesses in June. And the latest retail sales numbers, out Thursday, showed modest growth in June, up 0.2% from May. These are all things the Fed wants: slowing inflation, a resilient-but-not-spend-happy consumer. Is it enough to please the Fed?Sometimes we talk about the Fed like it’s one person. But the FOMC has 12 voting members. And their views on where the economy stands can vary.“I guess it depends which Fed official you ask, right?” said Stephanie Kelton, an economist at Stony Brook University. We’ve gotten mixed messages from Fed officials this week about the future of interest rates. But for now, that’s OK, said Randy Kroszner, a former Federal Reserve governor. He said this stretch of good data creates a buffer.“That takes pressure off the Fed from having to raise rates. I think the Fed is going to be on hold for a bit,” he said.“On hold,” as in, no rate hikes or cuts while they suss out the situation. Which is little hard to do when the situation is changing.“All eyes on the Iran war. I mean I think that’s key, critical. If oil prices keep north, we’ve got a problem,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.Zandi said energy prices influence Americans’ longrun expectations of inflation. So far, those expectations have stayed steady. But who knows how consumers will feel now that gas prices are inching up again. “If inflation expectations do start to pick up then we will see those rate hikes,” he said.Another run of high gas prices could also affect how business owners see the economy, and their bottom lines. Stephanie Kelton at Stony Brook said historically, gas prices take a while to work their way through the supply chain.“You don’t feel the impact all at once. It seeps through the system slowly. Things like packaging and insurance and transportation costs,” she said.So the Fed has some more time to mull things over. But after their next meeting at the end of July? Who knows.
The Fed digests an optimistic week for economic data
With inflation trending down, and retail sales numbers edging up, the Federal Open Markets Committee is going into its late July meetings with fairly positive numbers.










