Mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated despite a cooler-than-expected June inflation report, according to HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami, who said the Federal Reserve's continued hawkish stance and geopolitical uncertainty are keeping long-term borrowing costs high.
Speaking with HousingWire Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler on Wednesday's episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast, titled "Inflation Misses Estimates but Rates Still Elevated," Mohtashami said investors had expected mortgage rates to decline after June inflation came in well below forecasts.
Instead, Treasury yields initially fell sharply before recovering as Federal Reserve officials maintained a cautious tone, leaving mortgage rates largely unchanged.
His comments come as the Mortgage Bankers Association's latest Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey showed the average contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage with conforming loan balances climbed to 6.65%, the highest level since August 2025, while applications to purchase a home fell 7% from the previous week, underscoring the pressure higher borrowing costs continue to place on prospective buyers.
Fed Policy Is Keeping Mortgage Rates Elevated Mohtashami said mortgage rates have largely remained within a 6.5% to 6.75% range that HousingWire outlined earlier this year, even as oil prices and inflation data have fluctuated.
