When fantasy football draft season begins, it’s of the utmost importance to locate where the average draft position (ADP) is irrational in either direction — too high or too low.There’s a herd mentality that happens where people decide they don’t want to color outside the lines, so they just mildly adjust their ranks. It’s not a completely organic process, where many individuals are giving a fresh look and thinking independently. Plus, once draft season starts, even people who strongly disagree with ADP consensus are paying the consensus price. That means they don’t draft the players near ADP who the market is irrationally exuberant about, rather they try to get the player who the market is irrationally pessimistic about as close to that pessimistic price as possible. Do not do the former; do the latter, regardless of my ranking of these players. Rankings are not prices but merely a way to assess the expected value of the price you pay.I’ve used ADP from FantasyPros for the wide receivers listed below, and I’ve included where I’m ranking the WRs in question. I’ll focus on the irrationally high prices here and will follow up soon with the irrationally low prices (ADP bargains) in a separate article. The idea is to show my work so you can agree or disagree with the data and thus my ranking relative to consensus, which will be displayed as:(consensus ranking/my ranking).A.J. Brown (ADP WR7/my WR12)Last year, Brown was down about 20% in key stats — yards per target and expected points added (EPA) per target. He finished WR11. He recently turned 29 years old and is right at the edge of an expected decline given his size and seemed a lot slower last season. His tight window rate climbed 14%; it’s reasonable to assume that quantifies his declining ability to gain separation. Like most big WRs, he’s breaking down in the lower extremities, in his case his knees. The Rams reportedly abandoned trade talks once they saw his medicals. No one stepped up and beat the Patriots’ offer in a market where wide receivers are more prized than ever before. Many drafters are expecting Brown to improve with better QB play, but will Drake Maye be as good with a tougher schedule and without the freedom to throw to whomever he wants, not worrying about feeding an alpha WR like Brown? I feel WR12 is balancing the risk that Brown is in the midst of a decline with more team passing volume and better QB play. I also respect that the Eagles are a smart team. The market seems to be absolving Brown completely for 2025.