When fantasy football draft season begins, it’s most important to see where the average draft placement (ADP) is irrational in either direction — too high or too low.There’s a herd mentality that happens where people decide they don’t want to color outside the lines, so they just mildly adjust their ranks. Rankings aren’t prices (ADP is), but merely a way to assess the expected value of the price you pay. When drafting, you want to draft the player who the market is irrationally pessimistic about as close the pessimistic price as possible and void overvalued (by consensus ADP) players because their price won’t merit their production.I used NFFC ADP, which had 91 drafts through July 20. And I’ve included where I’m ranking the RBs in question in my subscriber product. I’m focusing on the irrationally high prices here and will follow up soon with the irrationally low prices (ADP bargains) in a separate article. The idea is to show my work so you can agree or disagree with the data and thus my ranking relative to consensus, which will be displayed as (ADP/my ranking).Ashton Jeanty (ADP RB5/my RB9)Jeanty was a big miss by me last year. The team was very bad, and Jeanty did not rise above it as you would expect from someone with his draft capital. So Jeanty can reasonably be called overrated by the scouts. You want to blame the offensive line? Well, we have yards over expected per carry, which adjusts for blocking, and Jeanty was 40th out of 48 qualifiers. Additionally, he was 32nd in yards after contact per carry and last in rushing success rate. The Raiders were 30th in RB points per game and 15th in receiving points to RBs, though Jeanty had just a fraction of the passing-game pie, especially early on. What do we know for sure about the Raiders this year? The QB play is still likely to be bottom five in the league. The line should be better, but it’s not likely to be good. I am moving Jeanty up from RB16 (where he finished last year in PPR scoring) to No. 9, but I can’t get close to RB5.