The people who bought Bitcoin above $107K are having a rough year. But their pain might actually be the clearest signal that this bear market is approaching its final act.
Glassnode’s on-chain analysis shows that realized losses from Bitcoin holders are tracing a reversal structure remarkably similar to patterns that preceded recoveries during the 2018, 2020, and 2022 bear-market lows. The key battleground right now sits around $69,000, a price level that served as the previous cycle’s all-time high before Bitcoin blew past it.
The $107K to $118K supply zone is doing the heavy lifting
During Bitcoin’s run to over $126,000 in 2025, a significant cluster of buyers accumulated positions between $107,000 and $118,000. As Bitcoin corrected through the first half of 2026, that entire cohort found itself underwater, resulting in a sustained wave of realized losses that’s now reshaping the market’s on-chain profile.
Long-term holders have seen their realized losses account for roughly 43% of total on-chain losses. Daily loss realization from this group peaked at $280 million, the highest level since December 2022. That December 2022 comparison matters because it coincided with the aftermath of the FTX collapse, which marked the definitive bottom of the last cycle.
