The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has launched missiles and drones at a US military base in Kuwait as part of the sixth wave of Operation Nasr 2. The attack targeted Camp Arifjan, a significant US military installation, and is described as a retaliation for recent US airstrikes on Iranian coastal locations. The IRGC has called on Kuwait to expel US forces from its territory, further intensifying the geopolitical tensions in the region. This development is part of the ongoing 2026 US-Israel conflict with Iran, marked by repeated military exchanges despite attempts at ceasefire agreements.
Market pricing suggests that participants view this attack as a significant escalation, consistent with increased expectations of military action by Iran against Gulf states. Sub-markets focused on potential Iranian military actions have shown notable shifts, particularly for dates close to the attack. The July 15 market, which resolves today, saw a substantial increase in implied probability, reflecting the heightened anticipation of conflict. Similarly, other sub-markets with proximate resolution dates have experienced movements suggestive of increased market participant confidence in further military actions by Iran.
