Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is set to deliver his inaugural semiannual testimony on monetary policy to the House Financial Services Committee. Scheduled for July 14, 2026, this testimony comes at a pivotal time as the Federal Reserve maintains its federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75%, amid persistent inflation pressures. Warsh’s agenda appears to prioritize price stability over maximum employment, suggesting a potential shift in the Fed’s approach. Market participants are closely monitoring the testimony for any hints of future interest rate adjustments, with current expectations suggesting at least one 25-basis-point rate hike by year-end.
Key Takeaways
Markets suggest a significant likelihood of no change in interest rates following the July 2026 meeting, with a 92.5% YES pricing.
The Fed chairman’s testimony could indicate a cautious approach to future rate hikes, consistent with a decrease in expectations for immediate hikes.
Current market pricing implies a 44.5% probability of a rate hike by the September 2026 meeting, reflecting uncertainty in the Fed’s policy direction.
