Kevin Warsh walked into his first congressional testimony as Federal Reserve Chair carrying a report that signals a meaningful shift in how the central bank thinks about inflation. The hearings, scheduled for July 14 and 15, 2026, mark Warsh’s debut before Congress in the chair role, and the Monetary Policy Report released ahead of those sessions on July 10 tells you most of what you need to know about where he’s taking the institution.
What the report actually says
The June FOMC meeting produced no rate change. The Fed held its policy rate at 3.5 to 3.75%, a level that has now become the fulcrum around which every macro trade is being calibrated.
Warsh’s document leans into discussions of money supply dynamics, a topic that has been notably absent from recent Fed communications under prior leadership.
The report also highlights what it describes as robust capital investment trends alongside persistent inflation pressures. That combination is the Fed’s version of a difficult hand to play. Strong investment usually signals a healthy economy, but it also means demand isn’t cooling fast enough to kill inflation on its own.
