The decline in a quarter is the sharpest for the market since Covid
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India’s smartphone market is expected to post a sharp correction in the April-June quarter as soaring memory and other component costs push handset prices to record levels and weaken consumer appetite for purchases.Analysts’ early estimates for the April - June quarter indicate 10-12 per cent decline in shipments as memory inflation leads to rise in prices of smartphones and hit affordability. The decline over 10 per cent YoY in a quarter is the sharpest for the market since Covid.According to IDC’s preliminary estimates, shipments are expected to fall more than 10 per cent YoY in April-June quarter. “Our early estimates put the market down more than 10 per cent year-on-year, landing somewhere between 32 and 34 million units, as elevated device prices continue to weigh on consumer demand,” Upasana Joshi, Senior Research Manager, IDC, said.Squeezing MarginsTarun Pathak, Research Director at Counterpoint Research, said memory costs have already increased nearly four-fold and are expected to exceed five times their earlier levels, raising smartphone production costs and squeezing OEM margins.“As a result, smartphone prices have already increased by around 15 per cent on average and could rise 20-25 per cent by the festive season,” he said. While cashback offers and EMI schemes will continue, they are unlikely to fully offset the price increases, and consumers will pay substantially more than a year ago, he added.Faisal Kawoosa, Chief Analyst and Founder of Techarc noted that several brands have deferred launches because of the slowdown. “So far, memory inflation was largely confined to smartphones priced below ₹30,000. Apple’s price increase shows that pricing pressure has now become segment-agnostic,” he said.Entry-level HitAs per Techarc’s tracker, the average selling price (ASP) at the entry-level segment (defined by the research firm as sub- ₹10,000), is almost ₹9700 as of May 2026, compared to ₹7600 in September 2025 before the memory price started seeing inflation. In the base segment (₹10-20k), it is now at ₹15,800 compared to ₹13,900 in September last year.Kailash Lakhyani, Founder Chairman, AIMRA - All India Mobile Retailers Association, said that price hikes in the entry-level smartphone segment are actively deterring consumers from purchasing new devices. Retailers across the country are reporting a drastic drop of nearly 30 per cent in sales volumes, he noted.He cited few instances of price hikes such as that of the Xiaomi Redmi A5 (3GB+64GB), which was originally launched at ₹6,499. But today its direct replacement model, the Redmi A7 (3GB+64GB), is priced at ₹12,499.“For every successive launch by brands, there is no real innovation or feature upgrade, but prices are seeing a steep rise,” Lakhyani said.IDC estimates that overall market average selling prices (ASPs) have climbed steadily over the past year.“We saw ASPs grow 11-12 per cent year-on-year in Q1 2026, and now expect an even sharper increase of 15-18 per cent in Q2, taking ASPs beyond $320,” Joshi said.Published on July 14, 2026
