A Wall Street analyst just looked at SpaceX and essentially said: “This company should be worth more than the entire GDP of Japan.” Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Strong Buy rating and an $800 price target, implying a market capitalization of roughly $10.5 trillion.
The current Street-high target represents a potential 425-450% upside from SpaceX’s recent trading levels around $145 per share.
The numbers behind the moonshot thesis
Gesuale’s model projects SpaceX generating over $837 billion in revenue by 2031, with $696 billion in EBITDA. The analyst used a 27x exit multiple on discounted cash flows from 2031 to arrive at the $800 figure, anchoring the thesis to what he estimates is a total addressable market approaching $30 trillion in the long term.
SpaceX debuted on public markets via the SPCX ticker in mid-June 2026. Shares initially surged more than 40%, pushing the company’s market cap to approximately $2.5 trillion before the inevitable profit-taking set in. The stock has since pulled back to a 52-week low range of $138-$145.
