SpaceX just joined the Nasdaq 100. On the same day, one Wall Street analyst put a $10.5 trillion price tag on it. A famed investor put the odds of a crash at 90 per cent.

SpaceX has plenty of admirers on Wall Street. None goes further than Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale. He opened coverage this week with an $800 price target, Bloomberg reports. That tops the Street, and sits roughly 430 per cent above Tuesday’s price.

Hit it and SpaceX would be worth about $10.5 trillion. That doubles Nvidia, today the world’s most valuable company at $4.7 trillion. SpaceX trades below $2 trillion for now.

The bet rides on AI, not rockets

The eye-popping part is where Gesuale thinks the money comes from. SpaceX booked $19 billion in revenue last year. He sees $5.2 trillion by 2035. Almost none of it comes from rockets or Starlink.