Currency markets are doing what they always do before a big data drop: holding their breath. The euro climbed above 1.1350 against the dollar in mid-July, with the European Central Bank logging an official reference rate of 1.1424 on July 13, 2026. That puts EUR/USD near the stronger end of the range it has occupied over the past several weeks.
The catalyst for the caution is Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index release, covering June 2026, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET on July 14.
What the numbers are saying
The EUR/USD pair has been oscillating between roughly 1.1350 and 1.1600 in the weeks leading into this period. The most recent low was around 1.1354, hit on June 24, 2026. The fact that the pair bounced from that floor and is now pressing toward 1.1424 tells you something about where positioning currently sits: traders are not aggressively buying dollars ahead of this print.
A higher-than-expected inflation figure would hand the dollar a boost and push EUR/USD lower. A softer number does the opposite, potentially extending the euro’s recent recovery and cementing the pair above 1.1400.
