OPEC just trimmed its outlook for global oil demand growth again. For the third month in a row, the organization revised its 2026 forecast downward, this time by 190,000 barrels per day, landing at a total projected growth of 780,000 bpd.
What OPEC actually said
The Monday report painted a picture of a global economy that’s consuming less crude than previously expected. Gulf crude production is rebounding, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually normalizing, and the combination is easing near-term supply pressure on energy markets.
The 780,000 bpd growth figure is notable because it sits well below the kind of demand expansion that typically supports sustained oil price rallies. Lower expected demand growth generally translates to softer pricing, assuming supply remains steady or increases.
And supply is doing exactly that. The Gulf production rebound combined with reopening shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints, means more barrels are reaching the market with less friction.
