OPEC+ is pressing ahead with plans to boost crude oil production by approximately 188,000 barrels per day for July and August 2026, even as oil prices have slid from roughly $112 to $89 per barrel in recent months.
The production increase is part of a broader strategy to gradually unwind voluntary cuts made during tighter market conditions. Prices are already under pressure from rising global supply and a geopolitical thaw: a US-Iran ceasefire that’s allowing the Strait of Hormuz to slowly reopen to shipping traffic.
The Strait of Hormuz factor
This narrow waterway handles roughly 20% of all global oil trade. When tensions between the US and Iran threatened to choke that corridor, crude prices spiked accordingly. Now that a ceasefire is holding and shipping lanes are reopening, the supply bottleneck is easing.
Volumes through the strait haven’t fully recovered to pre-conflict levels yet. But the trajectory is clear: more oil is flowing, and OPEC+ is choosing to add even more on top of that.
