The German Foreign Ministry has condemned Iran’s recent missile attacks on merchant shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and other countries in the region. This denunciation follows Iran’s strikes on vessels, including the Cyprus-flagged GFS Galaxy and the Qatari tanker al-Rakiyat. The attacks occurred after the breakdown of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. In response to these events, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the strategic Strait of Hormuz closed to all shipping, citing interventions by the U.S. and Israel as justification.
This escalation has led to a series of retaliatory measures, including U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets and the reinstatement of sanctions on Iranian oil. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital conduit for global oil trade, and its closure has heightened tensions in the region and prompted international concern over energy security.
Markets currently appear to view these developments as decreasing the likelihood of the Strait’s traffic normalization by August 31. The market for the question “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?” has seen a decline in the probability of a YES outcome, dropping from 32% a week ago to 15.5% today.
