Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, has declared that seeking justice for the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is a “serious principle” for the Iranian government. This statement comes in the wake of the leader’s assassination during a joint U.S.-Israeli military operation, known as Operation Epic Fury, which took place in February 2026 amid the Iran war. The assassination marked a significant escalation, as it was the first time a sitting Iranian supreme leader was killed by a foreign airstrike. The declaration by Baghaei suggests Iran’s ongoing commitment to retaliate and maintain regime legitimacy despite a current ceasefire.
The market for Iran’s leadership status by the end of 2026 reflects various scenarios. As of now, the probability of no Head of State in Iran by the end of 2026 is priced at 4% YES, indicating that most market participants currently expect some form of stable leadership to remain in place. The presence of Mojtaba Khamenei as a potential leader appears to be a focal point, with the market pricing his leadership at 79% YES. This is consistent with a strong expectation that the leadership will stabilize around him despite ongoing tensions and the potential for further conflict.
