The worst of America’s inflation resurgence may be over, but that doesn’t mean the inflation resurgence is over: Prices could keep rising uncomfortably for years.
On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report that consumer prices fell in June from the previous month. It would be the first time in two years that prices dropped month-over-month – and only the third time since the pandemic.
Almost all of that decline will be because gas and oil prices fell by an extraordinary amount last month after President Donald Trump signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran. (Last week, Trump declared that agreement “over,” sending oil prices rebounding slightly again.)
But stripping away volatile oil prices, the inflation picture isn’t looking quite so rosy.
Economists expect that the tumbling fuel costs caused overall prices to fall 0.2% in June from the month before, FactSet estimates show. They’re expecting the annual rate of inflation to ease as well, slowing to 3.8% from 4.2%.
