Kevin Warsh is about to have the most scrutinized two days of his tenure as Federal Reserve Chairman. His first semi-annual Monetary Policy Report testimony lands on July 14 before the House Financial Services Committee and July 15 before the Senate Banking Committee, and the timing could not be more consequential.
The June Consumer Price Index data drops on the same day as his House appearance. Projections point to year-over-year inflation falling to 3.8%, down from 4.2% in May. That’s a meaningful decline, and it sets the stage for what could be a pivotal moment in the trajectory of US monetary policy.
The numbers behind the testimony
The projected drop from 4.2% to 3.8% in headline inflation is largely attributed to declining energy prices following diplomatic efforts concerning Iran. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy components, is expected to come in at 2.8% for June.
Warsh has made clear that returning inflation to the 2% target is the defining priority of his chairmanship. He was confirmed in early 2026 following a nomination by President Trump, and since taking the helm, he has consistently emphasized two things: price stability and Fed independence.
