Penalties are supposed to be free goals. A shooter twelve yards from a goalkeeper with almost no time to react. Through July 10, just 39 of 60 penalties have found the net during the tournament. That 65% success rate, covering both in-play spot kicks and shootout attempts, is the lowest single-tournament conversion rate in six decades. The historical average hovers well above 70%.
Prediction markets are having their moment
Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction platform that became a household name during the 2024 US election cycle, has spun up dedicated markets around the penalty drought. Its “World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties” market alone has attracted over $1.29 million in volume.
Combined prediction market volumes across platforms hit staggering figures in June 2026. Kalshi, the regulated US exchange, exceeded $30 billion in monthly volume. Polymarket itself reached $10.8 billion.
Fan tokens ride the emotional rollercoaster
