The S&P 500 slipped on Wednesday as renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran pushed oil prices sharply higher, but Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will rebound at Thursday’s open.
The S&P 500 closed down 0.28% at 7,482.71. However, the July 9 Polymarket contract implied an 85% probability that the index would open higher on Thursday.
Why That Number Matters
Markets have quickly shifted from focusing on AI earnings and economic data back to geopolitics, with the latest escalation in the Middle East driving a sharp rally in crude oil and reviving inflation concerns.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting also showed policymakers remain divided on the path for interest rates, reinforcing expectations that rates could stay higher for longer unless inflation shows clearer signs of easing.
