Iran, experts say, is also expecting that Trump, whatever his anger and bravado, does not want a return to all-out war, which could further spike oil prices and alienate US voters months before congressional elections.Iran learned from the war launched by the United States and Israel on February 28 that its ultimate card is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow gateway for one-fifth of the world's oil."They want recognition of Iran basically having control of the Strait of Hormuz. That is their bottom line. That is their leverage with the United States and the West that has replaced earlier enriching higher and higher levels of uranium," said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute."Fundamentally, they think time is on their side. They can suffer more than the Americans and the Gulf and that's what they're gambling on," he said.Trump has been declaring ceasefires with Iran since April 8, upsetting Israel, as oil prices soared and the United States struggled to find an easy way to dislodge Iranian forces from the adjacent Strait of Hormuz.Iran's theocratic state, which has set up a system of fees that the United States describes as bribery, struck at least three commercial ships in recent days, according to the US military.The United States responded with extensive strikes. Trump called the ceasefire "over" and vowed to strike Iran "hard" but also said he was not looking for a long war as oil prices notched up.Iran agreed in the ceasefire memorandum signed with Trump on June 17 to allow ships' passage through the strait.But Iran also wants to make clear that it is in charge, and opposes the United States unilaterally escorting ships, said Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the left-leaning Center for International Policy."Iran is trying to avoid another full-scale war. But it also believes that failing to respond carries its own risks because it would project weakness and invite further pressure," she said."Iran's calculation is that calibrated, limited escalation can restore deterrence without crossing the threshold into all-out war."Risks abound