Nigeria’s inflation is expected to end 2026 higher than previously forecast, prompting analysts at Cordros Securities to abandon expectations of interest-rate cuts this year as lingering energy costs and global supply-chain disruptions keep price pressures elevated.
In its 2026 half-year outlook, the Lagos-based investment firm raised its year-end inflation forecast to 16.03 percent, up from an earlier estimate of 14.70 percent , while projecting average inflation for the year at 15.51 percent, compared with its previous forecast of 14.80 percent.
The revised outlook follows the now more than four-month volatility in global oil markets triggered by tensions in the Middle East, despite a subsequent easing in crude prices after the United States and Iran reached a peace agreement and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumed.
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“While the US-Iran peace deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have eased pressure on global oil markets, we expect the shock’s economic effects to unwind more slowly,” Cordros said in the report.
