RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan bumped his Tesla price target from $475 to $500, citing the growing possibility that Tesla and SpaceX could merge in an all-stock transaction that would hand Tesla shareholders a 20-30% acquisition premium.
The merger math
SpaceX went public in June 2026, and its shares popped 37% on the first day, putting the company’s valuation at roughly $2.4 trillion.
RBC’s Narayan sees a scenario where Tesla acquires SpaceX through an all-stock deal, and the math works out favorably for Tesla investors. The projected 20-30% premium he models is based on current market valuations and the assumption that combining two Musk-controlled entities creates something worth more than the sum of its parts.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is even more bullish on the odds, pegging the probability of a Tesla-SpaceX merger at over 80% within the next year. His thesis centers on synergies in AI and data-center operations.
