Artificial intelligence (AI) is often framed in binary terms: either as an existential threat that will replace workers, or as a tool that will usher in the next wave of growth or productivity. The reality is likely to be more nuanced.
The potential impact in South Africa will likely differ from what we are seeing in economies such as the US. However, developments there may provide some clues about what we could expect locally.
Research from the International Monetary Fund suggests that around 40% of global employment is exposed to AI in some way. In advanced economies, that figure rises to approximately 60%. Goldman Sachs has also estimated that around 300 million full-time jobs globally will be affected by AI over the next decade.
Interestingly, widespread job losses are not necessarily what we are seeing at the moment. Instead, AI appears to be changing how people enter and progress through the labour market. The pressure is most visible in the services sector and in entry-level roles, where companies may be creating new positions more cautiously than before.
The impact will also vary depending on the composition of the labour market. Jobs that are heavily administrative, repetitive, routine, and process-driven are at greater risk. By contrast, higher-level roles appear to be more insulated. These are jobs where experience, judgement and oversight are important, particularly roles that involve evaluating AI-generated outputs and determining whether the results are accurate and appropriate.
