The funeral procession of Ali Khamenei, the former Supreme Leader of Iran, took an unexpected turn in Tehran as the route was altered from its initial plan, sparking reactions among mourners and observers. The change was officially attributed to crowd safety concerns due to the presence of an estimated 12–15 million mourners. This event comes amid a backdrop of uncertainty and potential instability within the Iranian regime, following Khamenei’s assassination during a joint US-Israeli air operation. Additionally, conflicting reports about the funeral prayer in Najaf, where Khamenei’s son and new leader Mojtaba Khamenei was absent, have highlighted a potential strategic power vacuum and legitimacy crisis.
Market observers are noting these developments with interest, particularly in relation to the potential fall of the Iranian regime before 2027. The market for this outcome, currently priced at 6.5% YES for a resolution by December 31, suggests that participants view these events as indicative of possible instability. The absence of Mojtaba Khamenei at the Najaf prayer and the changed procession route may be seen as indications of internal discord and challenges to the new leadership’s authority.
