Thousands of mourners have gathered to participate in the funeral procession of Ali Khamenei, the former Supreme Leader of Iran, as it crosses into Iraq. The procession is passing through the holy Shia cities of Najaf and Karbala, with a significant deployment of 25,000 Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) to ensure security. This event is occurring against the backdrop of the 2026 Iran war, a joint U.S.-Israel military campaign that began earlier this year and resulted in Khamenei’s assassination. The procession is seen as a potential rallying point for Iranian and Iraqi forces, heightening tensions in the region.
Key Takeaways
The funeral procession appears to suggest a deepened solidarity between Iranian and Iraqi forces, potentially impacting the regional power dynamics.
Market pricing suggests a moderate decrease in the likelihood of the Iranian regime’s fall by the end of 2026, reflecting the perceived stability through the show of force at the procession.
The current odds of the regime falling before 2027 are at 7.5% YES, having decreased from a previous 10% a week ago.
