Morgan Stanley has initiated coverage of Elon Musk’s newly listed SpaceX with an Overweight rating and a $300 price target, arguing that the company’s secret AI weapon, a vertically integrated terrestrial‑plus‑orbital compute stack, could make it one of the most powerful infrastructure platforms of the AI era.In a note, the brokerage firm says SpaceX now combines “near‑monopoly launch economics, the world’s largest LEO satellite network, and a fast‑scaling AI infrastructure business” into a single, integrated stack of real estate in orbit, global connectivity and compute capacity.
The bank’s base‑case model projects SpaceX revenue rising from about $45 billion in 2026 to $319 billion in 2030 and an eye‑catching $3.3 trillion by 2040, with the largest upside tied to Starship, Starlink capacity, terrestrial compute and orbital compute.Four KPIs will drive the stock over the next several years, the analysts argue: revenue per watt, cost per watt, cost per kilogram to orbit and Starlink subscribers or connected “nodes.” These metrics map directly to the four big debates in their coverage — whether Starship can deliver a step‑change in launch economics, whether Starlink can achieve broad adoption, whether SpaceXAI can lead on compute cost and time‑to‑power, and how far the company can push enterprise AI monetisation.Also Read | SpaceX set to join Nasdaq-100 today.
