The ghost of 2000 is making a comeback. A Treasury report is sounding the alarm that the current AI investment mania bears a striking resemblance to the dot-com bubble, and that a sharp downturn in the sector could trigger widespread economic fallout across markets, including crypto.
Here’s the thing: the numbers backing up that comparison are getting harder to ignore. Expected long-term earnings growth for the S&P 500 hit 20.2% in mid-2026, surpassing the 18.6% record set during the actual dot-com peak. That’s not a fun record to break.
The investment surge that’s raising eyebrows
Global corporate AI investment reached $252.3 billion in 2024, according to the Stanford AI Index. Tech giants then pledged roughly $320 billion in capital expenditure for 2025, with a massive share earmarked for AI infrastructure.
The IMF has weighed in with its own warning, highlighting the risk of abrupt repricing in tech stocks if AI earnings disappoint. The fund flagged potential knock-on effects for broader macrofinancial stability, the kind of cascading damage that doesn’t stay neatly contained within one sector.
