In recent months, it has become increasingly apparent that the tide may be turning in the Russia-Ukraine War. On the battlefield, Russia is struggling to advance while suffering heavy casualties. Beyond the front lines, innovative Ukrainian drone tactics are disrupting the logistics of the invasion, blockading Russian-occupied Crimea, and sparking a major fuel crisis inside Russia itself.
Meanwhile, Moscow is now also struggling to maintain the steady flow of volunteers it needs to replenish the depleted ranks of the Russian army in Ukraine. Faced with these mounting difficulties, Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly mulling a mass mobilization as he seeks to regain the initiative and rescue his invasion.
A mass mobilization would be a huge gamble for Putin. Since the start of the full-scale invasion more than four years ago, he has worked hard to shield ordinary Russians from the impact of the war. In exchange, Putin has expected them to refrain from opposing or criticizing his invasion. Any attempt to conscript large numbers of Russians would shatter this unspoken social contract and could potentially destabilize the home front.
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