When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he was expecting a quick and complete victory that would erase the injustice of the Soviet collapse and revive Russia’s great power status. This now looks to have been one of the most disastrous miscalculations in modern history. Today, Putin finds himself trapped in the largest European war since World War II amid mounting indications that the tide is turning in Ukraine’s favor.
In 2022, the invading Russian military was so confident of success that some troops reportedly packed dress uniforms to wear during the coming victory parade in Kyiv. Few could have imagined that four years later, Putin would be forced to drastically downgrade Russia’s own traditional Victory Day parade in Moscow due to fears of possible Ukrainian attack.
And yet that is exactly what happened in May 2026. Putin even humbled himself by calling on US President Donald Trump to help broker a temporary ceasefire, while Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy added to his Russian counterpart’s obvious discomfort by issuing a mock presidential decree permitting the parade to proceed.
This year’s Victory Day humiliation was only one of multiple signs in recent months that Putin’s invasion is rapidly unraveling. In early June, Ukraine marked the opening of Putin’s flagship St. Petersburg International Economic Forum by bombing the city’s oil terminal and naval base. This was a major personal embarrassment for the Russian dictator, who was unable to prevent visiting foreign delegations from noting the huge plumes of smoke shrouding the city as they made their way to the forum venue.
