Beijing opened 2026 with a clear signal on Taiwan. In his New Year message, Chinese President Xi Jinping celebrated the establishment of Taiwan Retrocession Day on October 25 and called reunification ‘a trend of the times’ and ‘unstoppable’.
Days earlier, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had launched Justice Mission 2025 — a military drill designed to encircle Taiwan. At their May 2026 meeting in Beijing, Xi warned US President Donald Trump that mishandling Taiwan could push US–China relations into dangerous territory and lead to ‘clashes and even conflicts’.
But much has changed in the intervening months. The wars in Ukraine and Iran have exposed pressure points in US stockpiles and defence production. The US military campaign against Iran has drained stockpiles and pulled key assets out of the Indo-Pacific. US forces may have expended more than half their prewar inventory of four key munitions, and rebuilding will take 1–4 years. In April 2026 Senate testimony, Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Samuel Paparo warned that US Indo-Pacific Command lacks enough amphibious ships, destroyers and attack submarines.
The PLA has experienced some issues of its own. Xi’s ongoing purge of senior officers dwarfs his first anti-corruption drive. More than 100 officers have been purged or potentially purged since 2022. Of the 47 PLA leaders who held three-star rank in 2022 or were promoted to that level afterward, 41 have been (or are likely to have been) purged.
