India’s southwest monsoon has once again exposed the vulnerability of the country’s livestock feed ecosystem. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its 2026 forecast to 90 per cent of the Long Period Average, with a 60 per cent probability of deficient rainfall. By June 30, rainfall was already 30 per cent below normal, while 315 districts across 12 states had been identified as high risk, including 111 districts with less than 25 per cent irrigated farmland. For the livestock feed sector, this is not simply a weather event but a supply chain challenge with far-reaching implications.A monsoon-dependent feed ecosystemIndia’s compound livestock feed market, valued at $15.43 billion in 2026 and projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.43 per cent through 2031, relies heavily on a stable supply of cereals. Cereals account for 57.4 per cent of compound feed ingredients, while maize contributes 60-65 per cent for poultry feed and 10 per cent for livestock feed.This dependence becomes a vulnerability because nearly 83 per cent of India’s kharif maize is rain-fed. Delayed or deficient monsoons affect sowing across major producing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana, narrowing procurement windows and pushing up prices. For organised feed manufacturers operating on margins of just 5-8 per cent, even modest supply disruptions can significantly affect profitability and feed affordability.Structural pressures beyond the monsoonThe current monsoon uncertainty is compounding an existing supply-demand imbalance. India’s maize demand is projected to rise by 44 per cent by 2030-31, fuelled by both the livestock sector’s annual growth and the expanding ethanol blending programme. Today, maize contributes an estimated 48-51 per cent of ethanol production, and domestic maize output grew at nearly 9 per cent annually between FY2022 and FY2025, largely in response to rising distillery demand rather than food or feed requirements. As competition for maize intensifies, the livestock feed industry is increasingly exposed to supply constraints and price volatility.At the same time, policy support has not kept pace with market realities. The Minimum Support Price for kharif maize has been increased by only ₹10 to ₹2,410 per quintal from ₹2400 per quintal despite rising cultivation costs, offering limited incentive for farmers to expand acreage. Soybean, the principal protein ingredient in livestock feed, is equally exposed to rainfall variability because much of its cultivation also depends on the monsoon.Strengthening feed supply resilienceBuilding resilience requires a long-term approach that extends beyond responding to seasonal shortages. Strategic buffer stocks for maize and soybean meal can provide stability during supply disruptions, while greater policy support for irrigated rabi maize cultivation can reduce dependence on a single monsoon-driven harvest. At the same time, feed manufacturers should accelerate the adoption of alternative ingredients such as Distillers’ Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS), sorghum and pearl millet, supported by clear quality standards and regulatory guidance.Equally important is strengthening storage and logistics infrastructure. Improved farm-level storage, efficient grain movement and support through schemes such as the Animal Husbandry Infrastructure Development Fund can help reduce post-harvest losses and price volatility. With livestock contributing nearly 30 per cent of India’s agricultural GDP and the feed industry supporting millions of farmers, building a more resilient supply chain is not optional. Climate variability is becoming the new normal, and ensuring reliable access to feed ingredients will be essential to protecting livestock productivity, farmer incomes and the country’s long-term food security.The author is Chairman, CLFMA of IndiaPublished on July 4, 2026