Hour by hour, how the UK could respond to a Russian attack on Poland

Poland has reportedly been warned that Russia is planning an armed “provocation” on its soil to test Nato’s resolve. This could include missile or drone attacks on Polish critical infrastructure, or a limited invasion by Russian soldiers, according to a report in The Telegraph.

The UK military has not changed its plans based on this and there are no crisis meetings happening in the Ministry of Defence, The i Paper understands. Intelligence firm Janes also told The i Paper that there are no current indications in open source data of a looming incursion, such as troop movements.

But one defence analyst, who worked as part of Nato’s response to Russia’s 2014 takeover of Crimea, said it was a “likely play”.

Shorts

Ed Arnold, a senior security analyst at defence think tank Rusi, said Putin could seek to legitimise aggression by presenting it as protection of residents of the Russian exclave Kaliningrad that borders Poland, and calibrating an attack to avoid US involvement and split Nato.