Reports have surfaced that Russia may be planning an armed provocation on Polish soil to test Nato resolve. Sources told Polish media that this could take the form of a drone attack on critical infrastructure, or simulated strikes that would force the Nato country to activate its air defences.
It could also take the form of an incursion involving Russian or Belarusian troops.
But if Vladimir Putin did launch some kind of military operation against Poland, it would be a political decision driven not by confidence but fear. It would also reflect the victory of a hawkish faction in Putin’s inner circle.
Shorts
This would be a dangerous escalation, and Putin is not, by his nature, a risk-taker.
