Russia is planning an armed provocation against Poland, according to leaked intelligence reports suggesting Moscow wants to use the threat of a wider conflict to freeze military aid to Ukraine.The attack could be launched in a matter of months and see Russian troops cross into NATO territory, sources close to Polish president Karol Nawrocki told Polish outlet Onet.The warning to Poland came from the United States, which “systematically informs Poland about ever-new Russian plans for a conventional attack on NATO’s eastern flank, from which Poland is by no means excluded”, the source said.A Polish intelligence source said in the extreme scenario, a “hybrid attack in the border region” could take place.An armed incursion involving Russian or Belarusian troops could be presented as a mistake, such as a GPS failure or a malfunctioning helicopter that then has to be rescued by troops.According to intelligence sources speaking to Onet, the Kremlin anticipates that Washington would pressure Warsaw into diplomatic talks rather than launching a military counteroffensive against Russian or Belarusian forces. Under this strategy, Vladimir Putin would frame a negotiated troop withdrawal as a victory for Moscow, potentially only standing down in exchange for the West halting its military and financial support for Ukraine.The threat extends beyond Poland, with Baltic intelligence officials telling The Telegraph that similar border provocations remain a high risk in their region. They warn that such operations could be launched from Kaliningrad, the heavily militarised Russian exclave situated north of Poland that houses nuclear weapons.These warnings follow a year of airspace violations, with Moscow frequently sending military jets and drones to test the perimeter of NATO’s defensive network. A recent assessment by the International Institute for Strategic Studies revealed that Russia has likely been deploying “shadow ships” to launch surveillance drones over European territory. These operations have repeatedly interfered with commercial airline flights while probing Allied air defences. The institute documented 144 unconfirmed drone incursions across the continent between 2024 and 2026, tracking flights over several NATO countries including the UK, Germany, France, Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands.The Ukraine war has escalated in recent months, marked by a massive Russian missile and drone barrage on Kyiv killing at least 30 people. Meanwhile, Ukraine has expanded its drone campaign deep into Russian territory, disrupting Moscow’s energy infrastructure and oil refineries.