Africa is entering one of the most consequential periods in its post-independence security history. The continent is no longer simply responding to isolated insurgencies or civil conflicts. Instead, it is confronting a fundamental transformation in the character of warfare, strategic competition and defence planning.
By the end of 2027, African governments are expected to collectively spend more than US$58 billion annually on defence, reflecting not only persistent internal security challenges but also the emergence of Africa as an increasingly important theatre in global geopolitical competition.
Yet higher defence spending alone will not determine Africa’s future security. The continent is simultaneously experiencing the rapid rise of drone warfare, declining Western military engagement, expanding Chinese and Turkish defence partnerships, growing Russian security cooperation, and mounting pressure to develop indigenous defence industries.
The defining strategic question is no longer whether Africa should modernise its armed forces. It is whether Africa can build defence capabilities that are sustainable, technologically independent and suited to the continent’s unique security environment.
