Some probation units in England and Wales have been operating at more than 170 per cent of their capacity in recent years, FactCheck can exclusively reveal.
And the latest figures, from December 2025, show that the service as a whole is still running at 110 per cent of its capacity, with individual units again seeing even higher workloads.
Our findings raise questions about how the service will manage as more prisoners are set to be released early under a new law.
The probation officers’ union says this policy is expected to put further strain on officers who are “already struggling”, and that the union is concerned about what it means for public protection.
FactCheck lays out the exclusive data below.
