The US labor market has been on a rehabilitation tour since late 2025, when it posted some genuinely ugly months of net job losses. Friday’s June jobs report is expected to show the patient is recovering, if not exactly sprinting.
Economists are projecting nonfarm payrolls rose by roughly 110,000 in June, a step down from May’s stronger-than-expected 172,000 gain. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.3% for the fourth consecutive month.
A labor market trying to find its legs
Total job gains for all of 2025 came in at just 584,000, the weakest annual showing since the pandemic year of 2020. Some months near the end of last year actually posted net losses.
May’s 172,000 print was encouraging, and job openings data offered another bright spot: openings climbed to 7.594 million in May, the highest level since May 2024.
