Russia is more likely to resort to hybrid provocations than launch a conventional military attack against NATO’s eastern flank, Lithuania’s ambassador to the alliance said, as officials and analysts urged calm following renewed warnings about possible Kremlin actions in the Baltic states or Poland.
The comments come after two NATO eastern flank countries warned last week that Russia could stage provocations in the Baltic states or Poland in the near future.
“We probably should not expect conventional threats,” Lithuania’s ambassador to NATO, Darius Jauniškis, said. “I would first think about elements of hybrid warfare. Those are probably the easiest to carry out.”
Possible hybrid actions could include missile or drone incursions, according to Latvia’s intelligence services, which have warned that such incidents could be intended to pressure Western countries to reduce their support for Ukraine.
Security experts say Russia’s broader objective would likely be to test NATO’s resolve rather than influence policy on Ukraine directly.
