The US labor market has been one of the more stubborn data points of 2026, repeatedly defying expectations on the upside. June, by most accounts, is where that streak likely ends.
Consensus forecasts heading into the official June nonfarm payrolls report put new job additions somewhere between 110,000 and 114,000, a meaningful step down from the 172,000 jobs added in May, which itself blew past the roughly 85,000 analysts had penciled in.
The early signal came from ADP’s private payrolls report, released July 1, which showed 98,000 private-sector jobs added in June. That came in below expectations of 110,000 to 118,000 and marked the lowest monthly gain since March.
The unemployment rate, meanwhile, is expected to hold at 4.3%, where it sat in May.
Why the cooldown matters beyond the headline number
