Gold jumped over 2% after the latest US private-sector jobs report came in well below expectations, pushing spot prices into the $4,071 to $4,083 per ounce range. The move, driven by a combination of disappointing employment data and falling oil prices, is yet another reminder that macroeconomic signals don’t stay in their lane. They spill directly into crypto.
The catalyst was ADP’s June employment report, which showed just 98,000 jobs added to private payrolls. Analysts had expected roughly 110,000, and the number also represented a notable decline from May’s 122,000 figure.
What’s driving the rally
When hiring slows, traders start recalculating the odds that the Federal Reserve will keep rates elevated. Lower rates, or even just the expectation of them, make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive. The dollar weakens, commodities priced in dollars get cheaper for foreign buyers, and the whole feedback loop kicks in.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh added fuel to the fire by noting a recent easing in inflation expectations. If inflation is cooling alongside employment, the case for maintaining restrictive monetary policy gets harder to make.
