Jul 2, 2026, 11:47 a.m. 3 min readThe U.S. nonfarm payrolls report may help determine bitcoin's next moves. (Department of Labor)SummaryThis is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.The debasement trade, where investors move money out of fiat currencies like the dollar and into “hard assets” with limited supply, such as bitcoin BTC$61,132.76 and gold, could be back in vogue if Thursday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls data backs up Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s latest take on inflation.On Wednesday, Warsh said inflation risks have come down. That comment sparked a quick reassessment of Fed interest-rate increase prospects and triggered a bounce in both the largest cryptocurrency and the precious metal. Bitcoin has already pushed above $61,000, while gold has stabilized above $4,050 after dipping to $3,942 earlier this week.These budding recovery rallies could really accelerate if the jobs data due at 8:30 a.m. ET shows clear labor-market weakness. Economists expect a 110,000 increase in jobs for June, down from 172,000 in May, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to edge up to 3.5% from 3.4%.Weaker labor market numbers would mean less money in the hands of workers and salaried employees, which usually translates into softer consumer demand and lower demand-pull inflation. That would validate Warsh’s view, reduce the case for aggressive Fed rate increases and put real pressure on the U.S. currency. With bullish positioning in the dollar and rates markets already lopsided, a soft payrolls report could trigger a sharp snap-back in the Dollar Index (DXY), giving bitcoin and gold a solid tailwind.That said, if the numbers come in hotter than expected, especially on the wage side, the bounce could stall, fast. Stay alert!Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."What’s trendingOpenAI proposes handing Trump administration 5% stake (FT)The creator of ChatGPT is considering giving the U.S. government a 5% equity stake as part of efforts to strengthen ties with the Trump administration and broaden public participation in the benefits of AI.Stock futures are little changed after weak start to July trading; jobs report ahead: Live updates (CNBC): U.S. stock futures were little changed as investors awaited key employment data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s decision-making on monetary policy.Metaplanet buys another $170 million of bitcoin expanding treasury to 43,000 BTC (CoinDesk): Metaplanet (3350) bought another 2,823 BTC ($170.7 million), bringing its total treasury to 43,000 BTC ($2.6 billion).Robinhood rolls out public blockchain as it expands deeper into crypto (CoinDesk): Robinhood Chain is a layer-2 blockchain built on Arbitrum (ARB). It marks the company's biggest step into onchain financial infrastructure as it looks to expand beyond brokerage services and into decentralized finance.Today’s signalBTC's daily chart with the RSI. (TradingView)The chart displays bitcoin’s daily price action in candlestick format, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) shown in the lower panel.The RSI, a widely used momentum oscillator, is flashing a bullish divergence, a signal of weakening downside momentum and a potential trend reversal higher.This divergence occurs when the RSI and price start moving out of sync. While bitcoin fell to 21-month lows earlier this week, the RSI held relatively resilient above its recent lows.In simple terms: The price was getting weaker, but the momentum behind the selling was starting to fade. This mismatch is what traders call a bullish divergence.Related Assets12345678910Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum ReadinessBuilding the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum ReadinessZcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.Jun 30, 2026Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.Why it matters:Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.View Full Report