Report
July 1, 2026
Rich Outzen
The United States and Turkey possess the two largest military establishments in NATO and two of the most capable and sophisticated defense industrial sectors in the world. The former has the greatest global reach and footprint, while the latter has a unique geography and set of bilateral alliances; this makes each an extremely formidable contributor to overall NATO strength. Washington sets the agenda and tone across Europe and the Middle East, but new dynamics in warfare and geopolitics have increased Ankara’s relative weight.
The characteristics of both the United States and Turkey help define the extent of NATO power, and the relationship between the two helps defines its limits. When the national leadership of both countries agree, the possibilities for military, diplomatic, and strategic coordination broaden; when they do not, stasis and tension ensue. Presidents Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdogan have therefore taken great care to preserve a positive tone and constructive agenda, yet much remains uncertain about the future of US-Turkish relations and what they portend for NATO more broadly.
