The US beef market is in the middle of a supply squeeze that hasn’t been this tight in 75 years. CME Group, the world’s largest derivatives exchange, maintains its beef trading offerings as cattle prices climb relentlessly higher, driven by a herd that keeps getting smaller.
US cattle inventory dropped to 86.2 million head as of January 1, 2026. That’s the lowest level since 1951, down roughly 300,000 head from the prior year.
The price picture is hard to ignore
Farm-level cattle prices jumped approximately 21% in 2025 alone. Projections point to an additional 6.1% increase in 2026, which means producers are getting paid more per animal but have fewer animals to sell.
Wholesale beef prices briefly exceeded $400 per hundredweight in 2026. A hundredweight is 100 pounds of beef, so we’re talking $4 per pound at the wholesale level before it even hits a grocery store shelf or restaurant kitchen.
