New Delhi: Urad production is likely to come under further pressure in the current kharif season, for the fifth consecutive year, due to delayed monsoon and competition from alternative crops discouraging farmers from expanding acreage, according to industry experts. They also predicted that lower urad output would increase import dependency to a historic high.Domestic urad output has shrunk from 2.8 million tonnes in crop year 2021-22 to 2.2 million tonnes in 2025-26.Latest government data shows that the area under urad cultivation was down nearly 40% year-on-year as of June 19. “The multi-year drop in urad acreage stems from a mix of climate vulnerabilities and unfavourable economic risks for farmers,” said Ajay Kedia, research head at Kedia Advisory.“Urad is highly vulnerable to moisture stress. Over the past few years, erratic monsoon patterns—either prolonged dry spells during the vegetative stage or unseasonal heavy rains right around harvest time—have decimated yields and caused severe crop damage,” he said.The decline in acreage has translated into lower production. Domestic urad output has shrunk from 2.8 million tonnes in crop year 2021-22 to 2.2 million tonnes in 2025-26.Kedia said farmers in major producing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, which account for 50% of the total urad production, have increasingly shifted towards alternative crops. “Crops like maize, soy or millets are often perceived to offer better climate resilience or more stable market returns,” he said.Competition from soybean is expected to remain a key factor this season. “Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan also sow soybean which will be a competitor to urad,” said GK Sood, chairman of agro-based firm KN Agri Resources Ltd.“With consistently high prices and assured procurement under the Bhavantar scheme in Madhya Pradesh and a similar variant in Maharashtra, farmers are likely to shift sowing to soybean from urad. Both require roughly the same amount of irrigation,” Sood said.The country’s farm sector remains heavily dependent on the monsoon, with around 52% of cultivated area relying on rainfall and nearly a quarter lacking irrigation facilities altogether. The weather outlook remains a key risk for the ongoing kharif season. India was 42% deficient in rainfall as of June 26, raising concerns over sowing progress in several states.Lower output has increasingly been offset by imports. Imports of urad have risen by about 72% in four years. Imports rose from 611,000 tonnes in financial year 2022-23 to 1.05 million tonnes in 2025-26. “Imports are predicted to remain at historic highs—hovering around or exceeding 1.1 to 1.2 million tonnes for FY2026-27,” said Rahul Chauhan, founder IGrain India, an agri-commodity research centre.